A Halloween premonition

There are two sorts of Brexiteer: the Idealists, as found in UKIP and the deeper recesses of the ERG, and the Opportunists - the ones who are currently occupying 10 Downing St. It’s the second lot who worry me most.

The Idealists are fixated on a significant point in time: the moment when Britain casts off the shackles of EU membership and bravely embraces the dawn of a new Golden Age. There will be difficulties, they admit, but having boldly stepped across the threshold, we can all confidently look forward to a glorious future.    

For the Opportunists, on the other hand, Brexit is merely a small piece in a much larger plan. While the Idealists may be genuinely convinced that post-Brexit Britain will be a better place, the Opportunists have bigger fish to fry. They secretly see the disruption and hardship of a No Deal Brexit not as a threat but rather as a softening-up exercise on the path to a wider goal. It is no good trying to persuade such people that crashing out of the EU will result in empty supermarket shelves, queues on the motorways and power cuts. They already know this and, what is more, they welcome it. 

Picture this: November 1st and Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister - Labour having stymied hopes of a Government of National Unity. The UK has crashed out of the EU and everyone is beginning to feel nervous. Within days problems begin to arise - many of them resulting from a pervasive sense of uncertainty which, in turn, gives rise to defensive behaviours, panic buying etc. There’s an increase in the number of public order incidents, blame being directed at remainers who — it is rumoured — are deliberately sabotaging the  process of transition. In turn the remainers cry “I told you so” while quietly hoping for the best. Within a week or two gaps begin to appear on supermarket shelves. At first it amounts to little more than a narrowing of choice but it quickly moves to the point where the supply of essentials appears threatened. As the days grow shorter, power-cuts become more frequent. Most people begin to suffer a sense of unease; others are genuinely fearful. 

Then one morning, just when things are starting to look really bad, Boris Johnson, with Liz Truss at his elbow, appears on the media to announce that Britain has concluded a comprehensive trade deal with the US and that the sunlit uplands are finally within sight. It’s incredible; it’s almost as if it was all planned in advance. A week later, supermarket shelves are replenished; and while choice is a little more restricted, it’s so cheap! 

Everyone is happy and relieved. It was just like they said it would be: “An unavoidable short period of adjustment, followed by the long-awaited rewards”. Waitrose shoppers might be a bit grumpy about having to pay more for their French Wine but then, as we all know, the appreciation of fine wine is about far more than mere affordability. 

In the general election, held after long delays and constitutional shenanigans, The Tories, under Johnson, are swept to power with an unassailable majority. The opposition parties don’t know what hit them.  

Game over — or at least that particular one. In reality it is just the start.