There are two sorts of Brexiteer: the Idealists, as found in UKIP and the deeper recesses of the ERG, and the Opportunists - the ones who are currently occupying 10 Downing St. It’s the second lot who worry me most.
The Idealists are fixated on a significant point in time: the moment when Britain casts off the shackles of EU membership and bravely embraces the dawn of a new Golden Age. There will be difficulties, they admit, but having boldly stepped across the threshold, we can all confidently look forward to a glorious future.
For the Opportunists, on the other hand, Brexit is merely a small piece in a much larger plan. While the Idealists may be genuinely convinced that post-Brexit Britain will be a better place, the Opportunists have bigger fish to fry. They secretly see the disruption and hardship of a No Deal Brexit not as a threat but rather as a softening-up exercise on the path to a wider goal. It is no good trying to persuade such people that crashing out of the EU will result in empty supermarket shelves, queues on the motorways and power cuts. They already know this and, what is more, they welcome it.
Picture this: November 1st and Boris Johnson is still Prime Minister - Labour having stymied hopes of a Government of National Unity. The UK has crashed out of the EU and everyone is beginning to feel nervous. Within days problems begin to arise - many of them resulting from a pervasive sense of uncertainty which, in turn, gives rise to defensive behaviours, panic buying etc. There’s an increase in the number of public order incidents, blame being directed at remainers who — it is rumoured — are deliberately sabotaging the process of transition. In turn the remainers cry “I told you so” while quietly hoping for the best. Within a week or two gaps begin to appear on supermarket shelves. At first it amounts to little more than a narrowing of choice but it quickly moves to the point where the supply of essentials appears threatened. As the days grow shorter, power-cuts become more frequent. Most people begin to suffer a sense of unease; others are genuinely fearful.
Then one morning, just when things are starting to look really bad, Boris Johnson, with Liz Truss at his elbow, appears on the media to announce that Britain has concluded a comprehensive trade deal with the US and that the sunlit uplands are finally within sight. It’s incredible; it’s almost as if it was all planned in advance. A week later, supermarket shelves are replenished; and while choice is a little more restricted, it’s so cheap!
Everyone is happy and relieved. It was just like they said it would be: “An unavoidable short period of adjustment, followed by the long-awaited rewards”. Waitrose shoppers might be a bit grumpy about having to pay more for their French Wine but then, as we all know, the appreciation of fine wine is about far more than mere affordability.
In the general election, held after long delays and constitutional shenanigans, The Tories, under Johnson, are swept to power with an unassailable majority. The opposition parties don’t know what hit them.
Game over — or at least that particular one. In reality it is just the start.
Monday, August 12, 2019
Saturday, August 03, 2019
Dominic Cummings - Boris Johnson's Éminence Grise
An éminence grise or grey eminence is a powerful decision-maker or adviser who operates behind the scenes or in a non-public or unofficial capacity
Having watched the Channel 4 Drama, Brexit: The Uncivil War, I feel I know Dominic Cummings rather well. In fact, Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of Cummings was so convincing that I am happy to accept it as as the real thing. I’d go so far as to say that I honestly can’t imagine Cummings doing himself any better.
This is made all the more persuasive by the fact that Cumberbatch is identified in the public imagination with Sherlock Holmes. So the character we all saw leaning against a door frame in 10 Downing Street on the first day of Boris Johnson’s premiership was none other than the legendary resident of 221b Baker Street, invited to apply his powerful intellect and sharp eye for detail to the task of getting Brexit done. The illusion is one colluded in by the media, admiring colleagues and quite possibly by Cummings himself - Benedict Cumberbatch being — it has to be said — a very attractive and impressive individual.
You might view all this this as little more than whimsy, but it is worth noting that Dominic Cummings is already being referred to as a genius - and not only by his political associates.
What is undoubtedly true is that the genius stereotype, namely that of an individual blessed (or cursed) with great insights while simultaneously lonely, self-conscious and socially inhibited, appears to hold a fascination for many people and Cummings clearly fits the bill.
Of course the aura of genius surrounding Cummings was greatly strengthened when, against all the odds, he engineered the British electorate into voting to leave the EU - an outcome that left even the politicians fronting the Vote Leave campaign shocked and disoriented. If such a mind could be persuaded to apply itself to the mundane matter of delivering Brexit — so the thinking goes — we might hope to put the whole nightmare behind us.
For those wishing to find out more about what Dominic Cummings thinks, he has conveniently published a blog and a long paper: Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities in which he explores many of the ideas that interest him. The first thing that has to be said about this material is that there is an awful lot of it. The paper, written in 2013, incomplete and running to 237 pages, reads like a mash-up of current trends in scientific, technological and sociological thinking. The range of topics is huge - the following being a partial list: pure mathematics, the standard model of particle physics, complexity, emergence, self-organisation, chaos theory, synthetic biology, energy policies, game theory, space exploration, computer science, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, digital fabrication, modeling and simulation, genetics, biological engineering, education, virtual reality, augmented reality, economics, politics, psychology and philosophy. He has clearly done an immense amount of reading across a vast expanse of contemporary theory and the end result is something resembling a trophy cabinet, calculated both to impress and intimidate. This is not to denigrate Cummings’ understanding of these topics. I have ventured into this jungle on a number of occasions and it is a rich source of ideas, some of which I am already familiar with - others that are new and intriguing. At the same time, there is something faintly disconcerting about the sheer magnitude of material and the unstructured manner of its presentation.
Reading Cummings brings to mind a cinematic trope frequently encountered in thrillers: you know, the one where the protagonist discovers the lair of the serial killer (who incidentally is never at home) only to find the walls covered from floor to ceiling with mysterious photographs, diagrams, calculations etc. and marking the moment when the true, horrifying extent of the other’s insanity becomes suddenly and undeniably apparent. Now I am not suggesting for a moment that Dominic Cummings is an evil genius any more than I am ready to acknowledge him as a genius plain and simple. All the same, David Cameron’s characterisation of Cummings as a ‘career psychopath’ has a peculiar resonance.
There is a serious point however and it is this: amongst all Cummings’ exposition of ideas, technologies etc. there is no trace of a guiding ethic, no acknowledged beliefs or principles. His thoughts are almost exclusively confined to the applicability of sophisticated mathematical models, visualisation techniques and computational tools to problems of government. In a very real sense, Cummings has weaponised the fruits of his researches and appears willing to put them at the disposal of interests whose aims are only too explicit. For his part, he demands only two things:
1. That the stated goal is deemed susceptible to an engineering approach and
2. That he is given sufficient scope and freedom of action to promise a successful outcome.
There is an unspoken assumption behind his thinking however, namely that problems in the social domain: education, politics, the economy and so on are, in essence, no different from the more complex areas of the physical sciences such as weather-forecasting and the modeling of turbulent flow; and that while the available formal models might be somewhat limited, there is nothing in the social domain that need be impervious to successful manipulation by a sufficiently sophisticated intelligence. The ends justify the means so the saying goes, but in Cummings’ case one suspects it is the other way round, namely that The effectiveness of the means, validates the end.
Nevertheless, when it comes to his recent appointment, Cummings' stated mission is to deliver Brexit by any means necessary. Given the undoubted challenge that this represents it should come as no surprise that one of the conditions of his acceptance is that he should have a veto over the appointment of ministerial aides. Never having been a member of a political party himself, he makes no secret of his disdain for politicians, describing former Brexit secretary, David Davis as ’Thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus’, Ian Duncan Smith as ‘incompetent’ and ERG members as ‘useful idiots’. It seems likely that he will control ministers (on Boris Johnson’s behalf) with ruthless efficiency - transforming the principle of collective responsibility into something more like cowed obedience. One has the sense that there is no way back for ministers now. If they want to keep their jobs they have no alternative but to drink the Kool-Aid and try to come up to speed on at least a few of the funky new topics that make up the Cummings currency.
Both Dominic Cummings and his master, Boris Johnson could be accurately described as exceptional - neither is cut from the common cloth. The extent to which their very different characters intermesh suggests a game plan in which Boris works parliament, the media and the crowd whilst Cummings runs the back room operation. Boris, it is fair to say, is a self-assured communicator with a significant capacity for charm and buffoonery calculated to win support in the most unlikely quarters. However, as is tacitly acknowledged on all sides, beneath the bumbling there is a complete lack of substance and no trace of belief, moral or political principle. Not that this matters much, as there are others with perfectly clear agendas of their own whom he is prepared to serve, in exchange for the trappings of power.
The thing I am not fully convinced about however is the importance of the Brexit project itself. It is more likely, I imagine, that the real mission to which Dominic Cummings has been invited to apply himself is to ensure Boris Johnson enjoys a long premiership, during which he can make his mark on history alongside Churchill or Margaret Thatcher.
As far as Cummings himself is concerned, I have come to the conclusion that, while his interest in mathematics, science and technology is undoubtedly fascinating, to attempt to criticise him with reference to these ideas would be pointless. It is not a matter of debating truth or falsehood but of confronting a closed, self-referential system. It would be like trying to have a sensible discussion with someone who believes that shape-shifting lizards are taking over the earth — you’re never going to win.
No — in assessing Cummings’ contribution to the future of our country I prefer to adopt an altogether older, time-hallowed principle: by their fruits you will know them.
Having watched the Channel 4 Drama, Brexit: The Uncivil War, I feel I know Dominic Cummings rather well. In fact, Benedict Cumberbatch’s portrayal of Cummings was so convincing that I am happy to accept it as as the real thing. I’d go so far as to say that I honestly can’t imagine Cummings doing himself any better.
This is made all the more persuasive by the fact that Cumberbatch is identified in the public imagination with Sherlock Holmes. So the character we all saw leaning against a door frame in 10 Downing Street on the first day of Boris Johnson’s premiership was none other than the legendary resident of 221b Baker Street, invited to apply his powerful intellect and sharp eye for detail to the task of getting Brexit done. The illusion is one colluded in by the media, admiring colleagues and quite possibly by Cummings himself - Benedict Cumberbatch being — it has to be said — a very attractive and impressive individual.
You might view all this this as little more than whimsy, but it is worth noting that Dominic Cummings is already being referred to as a genius - and not only by his political associates.
What is undoubtedly true is that the genius stereotype, namely that of an individual blessed (or cursed) with great insights while simultaneously lonely, self-conscious and socially inhibited, appears to hold a fascination for many people and Cummings clearly fits the bill.
Of course the aura of genius surrounding Cummings was greatly strengthened when, against all the odds, he engineered the British electorate into voting to leave the EU - an outcome that left even the politicians fronting the Vote Leave campaign shocked and disoriented. If such a mind could be persuaded to apply itself to the mundane matter of delivering Brexit — so the thinking goes — we might hope to put the whole nightmare behind us.
For those wishing to find out more about what Dominic Cummings thinks, he has conveniently published a blog and a long paper: Some Thoughts on Education and Political Priorities in which he explores many of the ideas that interest him. The first thing that has to be said about this material is that there is an awful lot of it. The paper, written in 2013, incomplete and running to 237 pages, reads like a mash-up of current trends in scientific, technological and sociological thinking. The range of topics is huge - the following being a partial list: pure mathematics, the standard model of particle physics, complexity, emergence, self-organisation, chaos theory, synthetic biology, energy policies, game theory, space exploration, computer science, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, digital fabrication, modeling and simulation, genetics, biological engineering, education, virtual reality, augmented reality, economics, politics, psychology and philosophy. He has clearly done an immense amount of reading across a vast expanse of contemporary theory and the end result is something resembling a trophy cabinet, calculated both to impress and intimidate. This is not to denigrate Cummings’ understanding of these topics. I have ventured into this jungle on a number of occasions and it is a rich source of ideas, some of which I am already familiar with - others that are new and intriguing. At the same time, there is something faintly disconcerting about the sheer magnitude of material and the unstructured manner of its presentation.
Reading Cummings brings to mind a cinematic trope frequently encountered in thrillers: you know, the one where the protagonist discovers the lair of the serial killer (who incidentally is never at home) only to find the walls covered from floor to ceiling with mysterious photographs, diagrams, calculations etc. and marking the moment when the true, horrifying extent of the other’s insanity becomes suddenly and undeniably apparent. Now I am not suggesting for a moment that Dominic Cummings is an evil genius any more than I am ready to acknowledge him as a genius plain and simple. All the same, David Cameron’s characterisation of Cummings as a ‘career psychopath’ has a peculiar resonance.
There is a serious point however and it is this: amongst all Cummings’ exposition of ideas, technologies etc. there is no trace of a guiding ethic, no acknowledged beliefs or principles. His thoughts are almost exclusively confined to the applicability of sophisticated mathematical models, visualisation techniques and computational tools to problems of government. In a very real sense, Cummings has weaponised the fruits of his researches and appears willing to put them at the disposal of interests whose aims are only too explicit. For his part, he demands only two things:
1. That the stated goal is deemed susceptible to an engineering approach and
2. That he is given sufficient scope and freedom of action to promise a successful outcome.
There is an unspoken assumption behind his thinking however, namely that problems in the social domain: education, politics, the economy and so on are, in essence, no different from the more complex areas of the physical sciences such as weather-forecasting and the modeling of turbulent flow; and that while the available formal models might be somewhat limited, there is nothing in the social domain that need be impervious to successful manipulation by a sufficiently sophisticated intelligence. The ends justify the means so the saying goes, but in Cummings’ case one suspects it is the other way round, namely that The effectiveness of the means, validates the end.
Nevertheless, when it comes to his recent appointment, Cummings' stated mission is to deliver Brexit by any means necessary. Given the undoubted challenge that this represents it should come as no surprise that one of the conditions of his acceptance is that he should have a veto over the appointment of ministerial aides. Never having been a member of a political party himself, he makes no secret of his disdain for politicians, describing former Brexit secretary, David Davis as ’Thick as mince, lazy as a toad and vain as Narcissus’, Ian Duncan Smith as ‘incompetent’ and ERG members as ‘useful idiots’. It seems likely that he will control ministers (on Boris Johnson’s behalf) with ruthless efficiency - transforming the principle of collective responsibility into something more like cowed obedience. One has the sense that there is no way back for ministers now. If they want to keep their jobs they have no alternative but to drink the Kool-Aid and try to come up to speed on at least a few of the funky new topics that make up the Cummings currency.
Both Dominic Cummings and his master, Boris Johnson could be accurately described as exceptional - neither is cut from the common cloth. The extent to which their very different characters intermesh suggests a game plan in which Boris works parliament, the media and the crowd whilst Cummings runs the back room operation. Boris, it is fair to say, is a self-assured communicator with a significant capacity for charm and buffoonery calculated to win support in the most unlikely quarters. However, as is tacitly acknowledged on all sides, beneath the bumbling there is a complete lack of substance and no trace of belief, moral or political principle. Not that this matters much, as there are others with perfectly clear agendas of their own whom he is prepared to serve, in exchange for the trappings of power.
The thing I am not fully convinced about however is the importance of the Brexit project itself. It is more likely, I imagine, that the real mission to which Dominic Cummings has been invited to apply himself is to ensure Boris Johnson enjoys a long premiership, during which he can make his mark on history alongside Churchill or Margaret Thatcher.
As far as Cummings himself is concerned, I have come to the conclusion that, while his interest in mathematics, science and technology is undoubtedly fascinating, to attempt to criticise him with reference to these ideas would be pointless. It is not a matter of debating truth or falsehood but of confronting a closed, self-referential system. It would be like trying to have a sensible discussion with someone who believes that shape-shifting lizards are taking over the earth — you’re never going to win.
No — in assessing Cummings’ contribution to the future of our country I prefer to adopt an altogether older, time-hallowed principle: by their fruits you will know them.
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